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May 22nd, 2019 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.

Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)".  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!

Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity of each hero in Ranked and Unranked play:

Remember, only the heroes whose win rates are highlighted blue/orange with white text have exceeded their margin of error.  Heroes which do not exceed the margin of error are considered to have too little data to confirm that they have changed in any significant way.  Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that repeated tests would confirm the true value lies within the bounds of the confidence interval.

The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) Ana has declined slightly in win rate, but her popularity remains fairly high.  It seems that the changes have done little to mitigate how often Ana is played, as we've only seen a 1.2% decrease in games where she was picked, and a slight increase in games where she was banned, leading to less than a whole percent change in her popularity.  I had expressed prior disagreement with the reasoning behind this change, noting that her ban rate was the only reason that she was popular in the first place.  From all indications, this change seems to have done nothing to address this problem.  Whether or not further changes may follow is debatable, but I would hope that they don't get too nerf-happy with Ana purely due to a semi-high ban rate.

2) Anub'arak's change has brought down his win rate in relation to other heroes, though it also seems to have pushed Locust Swarm ahead of Cocoon.  Locust Swarm now sits as the pick in nearly three-quarters of all games played on Anub'arak, and holds a 55% win rate to boot.  With Anub's overall win rate closer to 50%, this suggests that Cocoon is now under-performing vs Locust Swarm considerably.  I would not be too surprised to see this change at least partially reverted, possibly tweaking the health back up to a more middle ground spot (like 30).

3) Muradin's changes have increased his win rate, but most of the changed talents remain largely unpicked.  Muradin received several buffs to existing talents to try and bring up his overall power.  This much has succeeded, as his win rate trended upwards in both Ranked and Unranked play.  However, the goal of getting less popular talents to be picked more doesn't seem to have entirely worked out, as many of these talents remain underutilized.  Thunder Burn remains the pick in about 80% of games, and Healing Static in just over 60% of games.  Considering that the competing talents were almost universally buffed in every regard, it is likely they will end up having to tweak these two talents down if they wish to convince players to use other talents.

4) Zeratul sees a slight drop in his overall win rate in Ranked play.  This isn't too surprising as Cleave is one of his best means of clearing and dishing out AoE damage, so even a small change of about 6% will be felt in how he plays.

Looking for more of my work?  My last article discusses concerns about snowballing and the "passive meta" that the new changes may bring if not handled properly.  That article is located here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
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