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August 6th, 2019 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.



Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)".  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!



Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity of each hero in Ranked and Unranked play:


Remember, only the heroes whose win rates are highlighted blue/orange with white text have exceeded their margin of error.  Heroes which do not exceed the margin of error are considered to have too little data to confirm that they have changed in any significant way.  Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that repeated tests would confirm the true value lies within the bounds of the confidence interval.



The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) Qhira has premiered with an above-average win rate, especially in Unranked and Quick Match play.  She sits at nearly a 61% win rate in Unranked.  While you may argue that this number isn't very meaningful due to its high error rate, I would counter that her Quick Match win rate is also a hair above a 60%, and it has a considerably lower error rate than either her Ranked or Unranked play.  This suggests that Qhira is functionally very powerful in less coordinated settings where counters are likely harder to find, whereas Ranked players have curbed her strength by shifting into escapes and purification talents.

A talent breakdown shows that her talents are generally pretty even in a few tiers, with a few exceptional tiers that we're going to discuss briefly below.  Due to issues with Hotslogs's site, I have drawn this data from Heroesprofile.


Fatal Wounds at Lvl 1 is sitting at nearly a 82% pick rate.  It also holds a 54% win rate, nearly an 8 p.p. lead over the next most successful talent (Maximum Effort, at 46%).


In terms of heroics, Final Strike is the clear winner with over a 75% pick rate and also a 7 p.p. lead in win rate.  Unrelenting Strikes simply can't keep up with the raw power of Final Strike as a finisher, especially in the (rare) case where Qhira can't otherwise follow that hero.


When it comes to Lvl 16, Booming Kick has a minor lead in win rate over the alternatives, likely due to how easy it is to achieve a net worth with this talent.  The base stun duration increase is already guaranteed value, but the application of her stun to an AoE around her target means it's now very easy to catch multiple people at once with this ability.  I wouldn't be surprised if the base stun duration increase were removed, as the value of the AoE stun alone is pretty great.


Finally, I want to look at her Lvl 20 talents due to two standouts: Utility Belt, despite its low pick rate, is doing extremely well at a 77% win rate, showing just how powerful cooldown resets can be.  This talent grants her some truly insane late-game mobility and it's being put to great effect so far.  The other noteworthy talent is Silent Killer, but not because it's doing well.  Rather, it's the current worst performing talent by a pretty fair margin, just over a 10 p.p. drop from the next lowest on the success charts.  This may in part be because of the general weakness of Unrelenting Strikes itself, but the addition of a Silence is somewhat unremarkable when the ability is still pretty easy to avoid.


Looking for more of my work?  View all of my previous blog posts here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
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