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April 30th, 2019 Patch - 7 Days Later
7 Days Later
(banner courtesy of /u/Somber99)

View the previous post on HeroesHearth here.
View all of my previous blog posts here.

Hello again!  After each balance patch, I've taken it upon myself to track how the balance changes have affected the Nexus.  It's become something of a habit for me, and I thought it might be fun to share my data with the community.

In case you've forgotten what changed in the last patch, here's a link.

Disclaimer (please read!):
All data provided in this post was collected from Hotslogs, which is a database of player-submitted games.  Data was collected between 3:30 PM and 4:30 PM EST each day, using the special filter "Last 7 Days (Current Build)".  As usual, keep in mind that my numbers may differ slightly from Hotslogs's "official" figures as the site regularly updates older information as more games are added. Therefore, our data may not match up perfectly, but it should give a generally accurate view of how the week progressed.

Here is a link to the spreadsheet with the data I've collected.  The spreadsheet contains all of my original data, split into two categories: "Composite" (which represents all data across the entire week) and "Daily" (which represents data from each individual day).  If you'd prefer a summarized report, read on!

Here is a table showing the win rates, pick rates, ban rates, and overall popularity of each hero in Ranked and Unranked play:

Remember, only the heroes whose win rates are highlighted blue/orange with white text have exceeded their margin of error.  Heroes which do not exceed the margin of error are considered to have too little data to confirm that they have changed in any significant way.  Note that the error column assumes a 95% confidence interval.  To put it simply, a 95% confidence interval is a numerical way to measure whether the win rate has changed in any significant way.  If the change to a win rate exceeds the error, then we can assume that there is approximately a 95% chance that repeated tests would confirm the true value lies within the bounds of the confidence interval.

The seven-day analysis is below.  Please note that while I try to cover all heroes, not all heroes are in need of in-depth analysis of their changes, so some heroes may have short summaries or may even be omitted entirely.  Also, be aware that the contents of this section are primarily my own opinion of the changes, albeit backed with data.  If you disagree, feel free to explain why in the comments below.

1) Anduin comes out slightly behind the "even" mark after a slight growth in win rate and popularity throughout the week.  Despite what many folks thought, Anduin's ban rate isn't actually as absurd as other "must-bans" in the past, which in turn means that his win rate is likely a bit more reliable...or at least that the fear of a high ban rate altering his win rate is unlikely here.  Given the relative smallness of this patch, I thought I'd go through each of his tiers and look at pick/win rates.  Keep in mind, these stats are more prone to sampling error so take them with a grain of salt.

Bold Strategy is the clear winner in its tier in both pick rate and win rate right now, as the 1 second trade off isn't quite enough to overcome the benefits of having both talents at once.  There's basically no reason not to pick it.

Inner Fire currently has the best win rate of the three talents at present.  Moral Compass is the most popular talent, which is perhaps a bit odd since it's arguably one of the less handy talents in its tier.  However, it synergizes well enough with any of the Lvl 1 talents that its selection is understandable.

This is the first tier to have relatively "equal" pick rates among its choices, although Blessed Recovery is currently performing the best of the three.  In my own experience, it's the only talent I really consider in this tier due to its raw healing power, so it wouldn't surprise me to see it nerfed a bit.

Holy Word: Salvation is by far the more popular pick, but also has the lower win rate, so it's entirely possible that Anduin might be one of the few heroes not to have an obvious "winner" heroic choice.  Both have fairly good uses in certain situations, though I would urge caution in choosing Holy Word: Salvation at higher levels of play due to its vulnerability to interrupts.  That's not to say it can't work, only that it's harder to get value from at a level where interrupts are more wisely used.

Another tier where the balance seems relatively even overall.  Speed of the Pious is the most popular but also the least successful among the collected sample of games, whereas Push Forward! is the exact opposite.  I wouldn't be entirely surprised if the latter received some tweaks, however, as it's very easy to stack the speed bonus with the right talent choices.

The more popular choices are the active ability choices.  My personal favorite is Lightwell in games where I need to crank out even more healing, as it's relatively painless to use during a stand on an objective to heal the team back up quickly, and its cooldown is easily manipulated by good talent choices earlier in the game to increase the speed at which you can crank out heals.  However, the better news is that none of these talents seems to be a "poor" choice in general, a relatively uncommon occurrence for new heroes in this game.

Out of these talents, only Light of Stormwind seems to be relatively under par, having a low pick rate and also sporting the weakest win rate.  This isn't too surprising as it's also probably the least inspired talent in its tier and doesn't do much for your ability to close out a game, at least so far as storm talents go.  The other three choices are all relatively even in pick and win rates, so it's largely up to you which one you want to use.  Personally, I have a taste for Varian's Legacy as it gives Anduin a bit more punch of his own, in addition to keeping that healing pouring out.

Looking for more of my work?  My last article discusses concerns about snowballing and the "passive meta" that the new changes may bring if not handled properly.  That article is located here.  Feel free to let me know your thoughts to this article in the comments section below, or on Twitter at my handle @CriticKitten.  I look forward to your replies!

Hope to see you again next time!
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